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2009 Upper Arlington City Council Race Analysis

With only two moderates running for City Council, the balance between moderate and conservative voices on Council hangs on the results of this election. UAPA believes UA City government needs:

  1. a moderate City Council
  2. a capable, experienced, moderate mayor --- Mary Ann Krauss

The only way this can happen is if both Mike Schadek and Debbie Johnson are elected to City Council. Here's the situation:

    Moderate Right-wing  
    1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mayor
Current Council   Seidel Krauss Leach Mauger Steen Ciotola Yassenoff Leach
2010-11   Seidel Krauss ? ? ? ? Yassenoff ?

Best Outcome

  Seidel Krauss Schadek Johnson Milillo Ciotola Yassenoff Krauss (75%)
Worst Outcome   Seidel Krauss Morrison DeCapua Steen Ciotola Yassenoff Steen or Ciotola


City Council Race Overview

  • This year 4 seats are open and 7 candidates are running for these seats.
  • Each voter will get to vote for 4 candidates.
  • City Council terms are for 4 years.
  • Only if Schadek and Johnson replace moderates Leach and Mauger can Council's moderate majority be maintained.

The progressive vote is key

The progressive vote had a race-determining impact in the 2007 City Council election --- only one vote per precinct separated the candidates in 2nd and 3rd place and the candidates in 3rd and 4th place.

Why is this year's UA City Council race so important?

The last couple years of City Council has been free of the divisive right-wing social agenda we saw in years past, and, as a result, Council has been considerably more productive. A moderate majority on Council works!

With two of Tim Rankin's most supportive Council members, Wade Steen and Frank Ciotola, running for re-election and Morrison, DeCapua, and Milillo being courted by Glenn Beck's local 9/12 group, the return of a narrow right-wing agenda is a very real possibility.

UA's mayor is the leader of City Council

  • In UA's form of government, the mayor is elected by Council.
  • Prediction: If both Debbie Johnson and Mike Schadek are elected, the next mayor will be a moderate. (70% probability).
  • Prediction: If either Johnson or Schadek are not re-elected, the new mayor will be far-right (80% probability)
  • The mayor appoints the Library Board

Use your votes carefully

The way the math works in UA's City Council 'approval voting system' can sometimes seem counterintuitive. If you use any of your votes toward candidates you aren't sure about, you could end up helping that candidate to beat one of the candidates you really do want to be elected. Our recommendation: vote for only those candidates you know you want in office, even if it means not using all four of your votes. Wikipedia has a good explanation of this in the section called 'Sincere voting'.

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